IpsosMori have released their latest Poll which shows the following:-
| Party | Vote Share | Seats | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 38%(-1) | 363 | +150 |
| Labour | 21%(-4) | 197 | -150 |
| Lib Dem | 19%(nc) | 56 | -4 |
| Others | 22%(+5) | 34 | +4 |
This would lead to a Conservative Majority of 76 seats according to the figures I plugged into UK elect, which would be a very healthy and workable majority.
To put it in context, the MP for my seat Charles Walker would see his majority increase to just over 18,000. It was a little over 11,000 in 2005.
The Others are still polling much bigger shares than I would expect them to in an actual General election. I suspect that the others would be nearer to 10 % than 20% come the general election which from this poll gives 12% that would revert to the main parties and would probably bring the shares up to 43%, 26% and 21%. The main thing from the Conservatives point of view is the lead at the moment and that is extremely strong at 17% and would be a greater lead than Margaret Thatcher achieved in 1983. I still anticipate that once we get completely beyond expenses then the polls will begin to normalise, and that until they do the best figures to look at are the lead figures.
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[...] the people, of which the last Prime Minister’s Questions were a perfect example. According to latest IpsosMori poll, the Tories would get 38% of the vote and 363 seats in the Commons, gaining 150 seats. Labour would [...]